Outlook and updating increases
In the near term, the global economy is likely to maintain its momentum absent a correction in financial markets—which have seen a sustained run-up in asset prices and very low volatility, seemingly unperturbed by policy or political uncertainty in recent months. Higher inflation pressure, together with faster Fed policy rate tightening than anticipated in the baseline, could contribute to a larger decompression of term premiums in the United States, a stronger U. Second, the imperative to increase resilience, including through proactive financial regulation and, where needed, balance sheet repair and strengthening fiscal buffers.Such momentum could even surprise on the upside in the near term if confidence in the global outlook and easy financial conditions continue to reinforce each other. Action is particularly important in a low-interest-rate, low-volatility environment with potential for disruptive portfolio adjustments and capital flow reversals.5/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam. 6/ Simple average of growth rates for export and import volumes (goods and services). Starting with the April 2015 release, all Office 2013 updates will only apply if Office 2013 SP1 is installed.Markets expect prices to gradually decline over the next 4–5 years—as of mid-December, medium-term price futures stood at about per barrel, modestly higher than in August. Federal Reserve policy rates have shifted up since August, reflecting the well‑anticipated December rate hike, but they continue to price in a gradual increase over 20.The increase in fuel prices raised headline inflation in advanced economies, but wage and core-price inflation remain weak. The Bank of England raised its policy rate for the first time since 2008 in view of diminishing slack in the economy and above‑target inflation driven by the past sterling depreciation; the European Central Bank announced that it will taper its net asset purchases starting in January.Among advanced economies, growth in the third quarter of 2017 was higher than projected in the fall, notably in Germany, Japan, Korea, and the United States.Key emerging market and developing economies, including Brazil, China, and South Africa, also posted third-quarter growth stronger than the fall forecasts.
The aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted.
1/ Difference based on rounded figures for both the current and October 2017 World Economic Outlook forecasts.
Countries whose forecasts have been updated relative to October 2017 World Economic Outlook forecasts account for 94 percent of world GDP measured at purchasing power parity.
2/ For World Output, the quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 90 percent of annual world output at purchasing-power-parity weights.
For Emerging Market and Developing Economies, the quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 80 percent of annual emerging market and developing economies' output at purchasing-power-parity weights.